The first thing we need to explain then, is the detail of the changes in question. There are other parameters too, and the model needs to recognise these and forecast the overall net change from one day to the next in order to give us a robust prediction. As this particular parameter can account for more than 1 second of lap time between two days, it is important that we build accurate algorithms to be able to predict this change. For example, the fuel level that is carried on a Friday and the fuel level that is carried on a Saturday could be different. The former group (those that the team control) are much harder to predict. how they choose to configure their cars between the Friday and Saturday), and some of them are an actual evolution of the circuit. Some of these are within control of the teams (i.e. The problem we were faced with as engineers and data scientists when trying to derive the algorithms that will forecast the qualifying pace is that from Friday practice to Saturday qualifying, many parameters can change. Using machine learning methodologies to ‘predict’ the future is becoming more and more common place, so using it in Formula 1 seems like an obvious choice, and AWS an obvious partner to work with. The ML model, run on Amazon SageMaker, will essentially take the practice data from the vent in question and use historical data of how teams progress between Saturday and Sunday’s races to try to arrive at a data-driven answer to what the qualifying results will actually look like. Instead, with this F1 Insight powered by AWS we will use machine learning and analytical methodology in an attempt to give us that answer in the most mathematically robust way possible. Sainz managed fourth at his final attempt, to line up behind Leclerc but ahead of Alonso, Russell, Hamilton, Stroll, Esteban Ocon (Alpine) and Nico Hulkenberg (Haas).For the latest graphic in our F1 Insights series, powered by AWS, we will be showcasing an insight that forecasts future events using machine learning methodology.Ī key question that is often asked on a Friday evening is ‘Where do you think the cars will be in qualifying based on the practice results?’ There are usually endless hours spent by journalists and fans trying to analyse every inch of the practice session, trying to come up with the answers. Verstappen produced 1m29.708s to extend his advantage at the front, with Perez beating Leclerc’s time to take second, 0.138s down on his team-mate. Leclerc exited his car before the final runs, deciding to save tyres, allowing the Red Bulls a free shot to go faster. Perez was third, ahead of Sainz (who had a big moment at Turn 8) and Stroll.Īlonso and the Mercedes duo ran later, with Alonso and Russell jumping ahead of Sainz to take fourth and fifth respectively at this point, with Hamilton only managing seventh. On the first runs, Verstappen took provisional pole with 1m29.897s, a tenth faster than Leclerc who managed a 1m30s-flat. ![]() Knocked out at this point were Lando Norris (McLaren), the Alfa Romeos of Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, Tsunoda and Alex Albon (Williams). Russell was third, ahead of Hamilton, Sainz and Alonso. ![]() ![]() With both Red Bulls staying in the garage for the final runs, Leclerc took the P1 spot with 1m30.282s, two tenths quicker than Verstappen. Lewis Hamilton set the initial pace for Mercedes at 1m30.901s, until Verstappen unleashed a 1m30.503s and team-mate Perez got within a quarter of a second of him for an early Red Bull 1-2. The fastest time then tumbled, with Leclerc taking P1 with 1m31.094s before George Russell ( Mercedes) took it on 1m31.057s and then Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) snatched it with 1m30.993s.įalling at the first hurdle were Logan Sargeant ( Williams, who matched Lando Norris’s time exactly but set his lap later), Kevin Magnussen (Haas), Oscar Piastri ( McLaren), Nyck de Vries (AlphaTauri) and Pierre Gasly ( Alpine, who lost his 17 th-fastest time due to exceeding track limits and will start last). ![]() Verstappen lapped in 1m31.295s before Fernando Alonso pipped him with 1m31.158s. Yuki Tsunoda ( AlphaTauri) set the early pace at 1m32.132s before a red flag was required for Leclerc losing a sizeable chunk of his Ferrari’s right-front brake duct as he started his first flying lap.Īfter the resumption, all 20 cars hit the track.
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